Saturday, October 2, 2010

Democrats firewall not working

4 weeks before the election, every senate candidate that is up 6% or more has won every time since 1998. Let's look at Rasmussen's last poll numbers.

All republican seats that are up are over 6% winning, including incumbents and new members.

Losing democrat seats:
North Dakota - Hoeven +43%
Arkansas - Boozman +38%
Indiana - Coats +16%
Wisconsin - Johnson +12%
Pennsylvania - Toomey +8%
Colorado - Buck+8%

Inside 6% and in play
West Virginia - Raese +2%
Illinois - Kirk+2%
Washington - Rossi +1%
Nevada - Angle -1%
California - Fiorina -4%
Connecticut - McMahon -5%

Trending right after very late primaries:
Delaware - O'Donnell -9% but coming on strong. Media negative is voter positive this year.
New York - Dioguardi -11% Rasmussen hasn't been here since Sept 16th. Other recent polls have him within error!

This leaves 8 still in play with the GOP at 47, dems at 45.

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